The multifamily supply wave. In twenty metros, the ten that permitted the most apartments now show median rent growth of 2.3 % over two years, against 4.7 % in the other ten.
Apartment permits peaked in 2022, and the buildings they covered reached tenants in 2024 and 2026. We set twenty metros side by side on one measure of supply, permits for buildings of five or more units per 1,000 residents, and on one measure of what happened to rents since September 2024. Phoenix and Denver are down. Chicago and New York are up by 10 % or close to it.
We measured supply as permits for buildings of five or more units in 2022 to per residents, in the twenty metros with the most residents. The ten with the most permits, led by , now show a . The other ten show . Two metros have lower rents than two years ago: . Rank by permits against rank by rent change and the , strong for twenty points and still not proof of cause. It has exceptions: on heavy permitting. The turn is also not over. In .
The metros that permitted the most apartments in 2022 to 2024 are the ones where rents have stopped rising.
Apartment supply arrives two to three years after a permit, so permits in 2022 to 2024 are our best free read on the deliveries of 2024 to 2026. We counted units in new buildings of five or more units, then divided by residents so that Dallas-Fort Worth and Denver can be compared. Phoenix leads at , then Denver at , Orlando , Dallas-Fort Worth , Seattle and Tampa . At the other end are Chicago at and Detroit at .
Then the rent. A national rent index reports the typical asking rent on a home for rent in each metro. Between September 2024 and September 2026 Denver fell and Phoenix fell . Dallas-Fort Worth rose and Houston . Chicago rose and New York .
Split the twenty by permits and the median rent change is . Sorting all twenty by both measures, the : more apartments permitted, slower rent growth.
Units permitted in buildings of five or more units: 19,242 in 2022, 19,036 in 2023, 13,835 in 2024, 14,800 in 2025. Rent index $1,726 in September 2024, $1,720 in September 2026; +1.0 % in the last year.
Units permitted in buildings of five or more units, 2022 to 2024, per 1,000 residents (2024 estimate), and the rent index change from September 2024 to September 2026. Bars show the permit measure or the rent change, whichever you sort by.
Two metros do not fit. Seattle permitted and its rent index is . New York permitted , more than Washington DC and San Diego, and its rent is . San Francisco is the biggest mover of the twenty, , on permits of only . Supply is one cause of rent and demand is another; this page measures only the first.
The two-year figure says where rents turned. The last twelve months say who is still turning.
Six metros are flat on the year, and in all six, permits rose again in 2025.
In the twelve months to September 2026 the rent index moved least in six metros: Denver , Houston , Tampa , Dallas-Fort Worth , Orlando and Phoenix . Five of the six are among the ten with the most permits in 2022 to 2024; Houston, at , is eleventh. Six of the twenty were up or more: . Four of them, Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia and San Francisco, are among the six metros with the fewest permits.
The supply has not stopped. In all six flat metros, : Orlando , Houston , Denver , Tampa , Dallas-Fort Worth and Phoenix . Across the twenty, , and in total the twenty permitted .
This is not a forecast. A permit can lapse, and a building permitted in 2025 reaches tenants in 2027 or later. It does say that the metros with flat rents are not the metros where the pipeline is drying up, which is the question for anyone underwriting rent growth there.
What to take from twenty readings, and what to leave.
A permit is not a delivery, a rent index is not an apartment lease, and twenty metros are not the market.
Three limits. First, we count permits, not completions or occupancy, so absorption here means what happened to rents in a metro after the permits, not a measured lease-up. Second, the rent index covers typical asking rents on all types of rental homes, houses and condominiums as well as apartments, and it is smoothed, so a change of a few tenths of a percent is not a signal. Third, the twenty are the metros with the most residents in the 2024 estimate; fast-building metros below that cut are not shown.
For a lender, the practical question is whether the rent growth in an underwriting is a metro that is still up. For an owner, it is the gap between your in-place rents and the asking rent now. For a fund, it is whether a flat rent in Denver or Phoenix is in the assumptions for a building bought on last year’s growth.
What this page does not replace: a broker’s opinion of rent for the building, a licensed appraisal, a lender’s underwriting, a submarket rent check, or a site visit. A metro figure says nothing about one building.
Set the metro against the building in front of you.
What to do with this
If you own, lend on or buy apartments in one of the twenty: put the permits in your metro for 2022 to 2025 beside the rent growth in your underwriting, and ask for the submarket, not the metro. A metro figure is a place to start, not an answer.
Sources
Found: from a dated document. Derived: calculated by us from found figures. Estimate: our judgment, with the method.
- FoundApartment-building permits, 2022 to 2025, twenty metros. Dataset sup-permits-2022-2025: twenty rows, one per metro; the quote gives units for 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025. Annual county files of the federal building permits survey, the column for buildings of five or more units, summed over the counties of each metro area as defined in the 2023 federal metro delineation. Read 14 Nov 2026.
- FoundResident population, 2024, twenty metros. Dataset sup-population-2024: the same twenty rows. County population estimates of the federal statistical agency, vintage 2024, summed over the same metro areas. The twenty are the twenty metro areas with the most residents among all metro areas in the 2023 delineation (not micropolitan areas). Read 14 Nov 2026.
- FoundTypical asking rent index, September 2024, 2025 and 2026, twenty metros. Dataset sup-rent-index-2024-2026: the same twenty rows, September 2026 level. A national rent index from an online listings company, metro series, single-family, condominium and multifamily rentals together, smoothed. Dollars are rounded; changes on this page are computed from the unrounded series. Read 14 Nov 2026.
- DerivedUnits permitted 2022 to 2024 per 1,000 residents. Titleman calculation from cards F1 and F2. Washington DC (7.12) and Houston (7.07) both round to 7.1; the order follows the unrounded figures, which put Washington DC in the ten and Houston in the other ten.
- DerivedRent change against permits: medians and rank correlation. Titleman calculation from cards D1 and F3. Medians are unweighted, each metro once. Twenty observations show an association, not a cause.
- DerivedMetros flat on the year, 2025 permits against 2024, and metros up 3 % or more. Titleman calculation from cards F1 and F3. A count, not a statistical test.
- EstimateWhich metros, and what permits and the rent index measure. Titleman note on scope. Ask us for the working: alexgalt@titleman.ai.
Figures are as stated in three federal and market series read on 14 November 2026 (permit counts by county, summed to metro areas; the 2024 population estimate; a national rent index through September 2026), and Titleman calculations from them. Medians are unweighted and cover the twenty metros only. Titleman’s opinion, not investment or legal advice.