Are strip malls good investments, and what should I check first?
A strip center can be a solid investment when it is anchored by necessity tenants, sits on a busy road in a growing trade area and is bought at a basis that covers re-leasing risk. Check the tenants first: who they are, when their leases end, what they pay compared with market rent, and whether they reimburse expenses.
Answered
A strip center can be a solid investment when it is anchored by necessity tenants, sits on a busy road in a growing trade area and is bought at a basis that covers re-leasing risk. Check the tenants first: who they are, when their leases end, what they pay compared with market rent, and whether they reimburse expenses.
The first five checks
1. Tenant mix: grocery, pharmacy, medical, food and services hold up better than tenants that compete with online shopping.
2. Lease expirations: a large share of rent ending in the next two to three years is a risk and a negotiating point.
3. Rents against market: tenants paying well above market may leave or ask for cuts at renewal; tenants below market are upside.
4. Lease type: triple net leases pass taxes, insurance and maintenance to tenants; gross leases leave them with you.
5. The site: traffic, access, visibility, parking and the trade area's population and income trends.
Then the numbers
- In-place NOI from the rent roll and the operating statement, not the broker's pro forma.
- Price per square foot and cap rate against recent sales of similar centers nearby.
- Cost to re-lease a vacant space: tenant improvements, commissions and months of free rent.
- Roof, parking lot and facade condition, which are the big capital items.
When to walk away
A center that only works if every tenant renews at higher rents is priced for perfection. So is one where a single tenant drives most of the income without a long lease.
Titleman reads the rent roll and leases, checks rents and price against market comps, and flags expirations and gaps in a cited report. See an example: https://titleman.ai/products/deal-review