How do I estimate market rent and vacancy for an office building in a US submarket?
Estimate office market rent from recently signed leases in the same submarket, building class and size range, adjusted for lease type, free rent and tenant improvements. Estimate vacancy from the share of available space in comparable buildings, not the whole metro. Asking rents and metro-wide vacancy are starting points, not answers.
Answered
Estimate office market rent from recently signed leases in the same submarket, building class and size range, adjusted for lease type, free rent and tenant improvements. Estimate vacancy from the share of available space in comparable buildings, not the whole metro. Asking rents and metro-wide vacancy are starting points, not answers.
Market rent, step by step
1. Pick comparable buildings: same submarket, same class, similar age and size.
2. Use signed leases from the last 12 to 24 months, not asking rents.
3. Convert to net effective rent: subtract free rent and tenant improvement allowances spread over the lease term.
4. Adjust for lease type: full service gross, modified gross or triple net change what "rent" includes.
5. Adjust for suite size and floor: larger and higher suites often lease differently.
Vacancy, step by step
- Count available space in the comparable set, including sublease space, which often signals weakness first.
- Look at the trend: is vacancy rising or falling over the last four quarters?
- Separate the building's own vacancy from the market's: a building that is 70 percent leased in an 85 percent market has its own problem.
Common mistakes
- Using metro averages for a single building.
- Ignoring concessions, which can cut effective rent sharply in weak markets.
- Treating sublease space as occupied.
How Titleman helps
Titleman assembles lease comps, absorption and concessions for the trade area from the record, filters to comparable buildings and cites each comp, so the market rent in your model has a source. See how Deal Review works: https://titleman.ai/products/deal-review