How do I value a commercial property with low occupancy?
Value a low-occupancy commercial property in two steps: what it would be worth stabilized, using market rents, a market vacancy rate and a market cap rate, and then what it costs and how long it takes to get there. Subtract the lease-up cost, the lost income during lease-up and a profit for the risk. The in-place cap rate alone will undervalue it.
Answered
Value a low-occupancy commercial property in two steps: what it would be worth stabilized, using market rents, a market vacancy rate and a market cap rate, and then what it costs and how long it takes to get there. Subtract the lease-up cost, the lost income during lease-up and a profit for the risk. The in-place cap rate alone will undervalue it.
The lease-up method
1. Stabilized NOI: market rent for the vacant space, current rents for leased space, market vacancy and typical expenses.
2. Stabilized value: stabilized NOI divided by a cap rate from comparable stabilized sales.
3. Cost to stabilize: tenant improvements, leasing commissions, free rent and any capital work the space needs.
4. Carry: the income you do not collect while leasing up, plus operating costs on the empty space.
5. Risk: a discount or profit margin for the chance that lease-up takes longer than planned.
Value today is roughly the stabilized value minus steps 3, 4 and 5.
Inputs to check carefully
- How long similar space has taken to lease in the submarket.
- Whether the market rent you use is supported by recent leases, not asking rents.
- Whether the building needs work before tenants will sign.
A cross-check
Look for sales of similar assets that traded vacant or partly vacant. Few exist, but one or two can tell you whether your lease-up discount is realistic.
How Titleman helps
Titleman builds the value read from comps and market rents it pulls itself, keeps your figures apart from its assumptions and shows the lease-up math line by line. It is not an appraisal. See how Deal Review works: https://titleman.ai/products/deal-review