Solution

Lease Rollover Risk, Read Lease by Lease

Occupancy and WALT can look the same on two rent rolls that carry very different rollover risk. How to read expirations lease by lease, find the window where income concentrates, and carry it into the underwriting.

Two rent rolls can carry the same occupancy rate and the same weighted average lease term and still be different loans. One has its expirations spread out; the other has more than half its leased square footage rolling inside a single 12-month window. The aggregate numbers do not show the difference. The lease-by-lease schedule does.

That gap matters most on office and retail deals, where a building that looks fully leased on the summary page can be one non-renewal cluster away from a covenant problem, and the lenders and asset managers underwriting the deal are the ones who have to catch it before close, not after.

What A Single Occupancy Number Hides

Occupancy and WALT are both averages. Averages are useful for a one-line summary and useless for spotting concentration. A rent roll where every suite expires within a few months of each other and a rent roll where expirations are spread evenly across a decade can report an identical WALT. The risk they carry is not identical at all: one depends on a single leasing moment going well, the other does not.

Reading that difference by hand means opening the rent roll, sorting by expiration date and scanning the calendar for clusters. It is a manual step that is easy to skip under deadline and easy to get wrong on a rent roll with fifty or a hundred suites.

How To Read Rollover Lease By Lease

A rollover read answers one underwriting question: where does the income concentrate, and when does that concentration come due. Four steps get you there.

  1. Put every lease on one schedule. Suite, tenant, leased area, current rent, expiration date, and any renewal or termination option. A month-to-month tenant belongs in the nearest window, not in the "occupied" total.
  2. Group expirations into windows. Twelve-month windows from the analysis date are the usual cut. For each window, record the share of leased area and the share of rent that expires in it.
  3. Mark the largest window against the loan or hold. A window that falls before the loan matures, or inside the first years of the hold, is the one that drives the stress case.
  4. Check the options, not just the dates. A termination right moves an expiration earlier. A renewal option at a fixed rent can keep a tenant on a below-market lease, which is a different risk from losing it.

That is a different exercise from lease abstraction. Abstraction pulls structured fields out of a single lease document (rent, escalations, options, reimbursement terms) for a record you keep. A rollover read works across every lease on the rent roll at once.

Why It Belongs In The Underwriting, Not A Separate Report

A rollover read is only useful if it reaches the same numbers that are already stress-testing the deal: the same NOI, the same cap rate assumptions, the same debt-service coverage. A concentration that lives in a separate memo is one nobody opens twice. The stress case should take the largest expiry window, assume a share of it does not renew, and show what that does to income and coverage in the year it happens.

Where Titleman Fits

Rollover cannot be read from public records. Expirations and options live in the rent roll and the leases, so the read starts with documents only the owner or seller has.

When you send a deal to Titleman with its rent roll and a trailing operating statement, the underwriting works from the asset's own numbers instead of public-data inference. Every figure in the answer carries its source, and what was assumed is kept apart from what the documents state, so a reviewer can see which income lines rest on signed leases and which do not. If rollover is the question you need answered, say so in the brief: the expiry windows and the stress case you want are part of the instruction, not something to hope for.

If you are underwriting an office or retail acquisition and want to see where the rollover actually concentrates before you commit to a number, send the rent roll with the deal.

Send a rent roll with your next deal to Titleman

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