Answer

My Commercial Loan Matures in 2027 at a Higher Rate: How Do Owners Estimate the Refinance Risk and What the Building Is Worth Now?

Run the lender's two tests on your own numbers first: coverage at today's rate and value at today's cap rate, then size the new loan to the lower of the two. A worked illustration, the steps, and how long an AI read takes at the measured median.

Run the lender's two tests on your own numbers before the lender does: divide your trailing-12 NOI by the debt service on the balance at today's rate (lenders commonly want 1.25x or more), and divide the same NOI by today's cap rate to get value, then size the new loan to the lower of what coverage and loan-to-value allow. The gap between that loan and your balance is your refinance risk in cash; Titleman, for example, builds both tests in a live Excel from your T-12 and rent roll in about an hour at the measured median, or gives a value range from comparable sales in about half an hour.

Published by Titleman, which makes one of the tools compared. Updated 19 October 2026.

A worked illustration

Arithmetic on round, made-up numbers, not a market fact or a loan quote: a balance of 10.0 million, a trailing-12 NOI of 800,000, a refinance at 6.5% on a 30-year amortization, a lender asking for 1.25x coverage and 65% loan-to-value.

StepCalculationResult
Debt service at today's rate10.0 million at 6.5%, 30 yearsAbout 758,500 a year
Coverage800,000 divided by 758,5001.05x, below 1.25x
Loan the income supports at 1.25x800,000 divided by 1.25, at the same loan constantAbout 8.44 million
Value at a 6.5% cap rate800,000 divided by 0.065About 12.3 million
Loan at 65% of that value12.3 million times 0.65About 8.0 million
New loan: the lower of the twoThe lower of 8.44 and 8.0 millionAbout 8.0 million
Cash to bring10.0 million minus 8.0 millionAbout 2.0 million, before costs

At a 7.0% cap rate the value falls to about 11.4 million, the 65% loan to about 7.4 million, and the gap grows to about 2.6 million. One step of cap rate moves the answer by more than half a million, which is why the cap rate deserves its own evidence.

Where each number should come from

  1. NOI from the trailing-12 statement and the current rent roll, not the pro forma. See pro forma vs in-place NOI.
  2. Today's rate for your asset type, then one or two rates above it. Titleman does not forecast rates.
  3. The cap rate from recent sales of similar buildings nearby; comps in Titleman take about 20 minutes at the median.
  4. The loan terms your lender is likely to ask for. See how to size a commercial real estate loan.

What it costs in time: an underwriting with the grid of DSCR at rate and loan-to-value takes about an hour, a BOV value range with its comparable sales about half an hour, and comps about 20 minutes; measured medians on production runs in the 30 days to 13 October 2026. None of them is a loan quote or an appraisal.

The lender's side of the same test, on one finished run, is in refinancing a CRE loan maturing in 2027; the hold, sell or refinance choice is in six questions property owners ask. Other tools by job are in AI tools for commercial real estate, and the owner page is Titleman for owners and asset managers.

FAQ

How do I estimate what my building is worth now?

Trailing-12 NOI divided by a cap rate from recent nearby sales, checked against their price per square foot or per unit.

What if the new loan will be smaller than the balance?

Pay down, extend, add capital, raise the income before maturity, or sell. Run the test a year or more ahead.

Does Titleman forecast 2027 rates?

No. Test at today's rate and one or two above it.

Request a demo with the T-12 and rent roll of the building with the 2027 maturity.

Send the T-12 and rent roll of the building with the 2027 maturity

Request a demo