Short answer: about $2.5 billion of Texas commercial real estate debt carries a warning sign. On the screen below, 173 of 2,216 loans ($2.52 billion of $40.4 billion) are 30+ days late, in workout, or report coverage under 1.0x. The money is saved or lost before the workout, not after it: 80 of the 173 ($746 million) are neither late nor in workout yet, and 9 of the 23 loans we could value owe more than the building is worth.
What is overdue
| Measure | Loans | Debt |
|---|---|---|
| All live Texas loans in the screen | 2,216 | $40,400.8M |
| Under pressure (any sign below) | 173 | $2,515.5M |
| 30+ days late or in default | 80 | $1,420.5M |
| In workout | 46 | $1,320.8M |
| Reported coverage under 1.0x | 95 | $1,211.9M |
| Coverage under 1.0x, not late and not in workout | 80 | $746.3M |
| Past the stated maturity date | 2 | $100.2M |
The signs overlap, so the rows do not add up. 93 loans ($1.77 billion) are late or in workout. The other 80 were neither late nor in workout at the last report, and they are the group a lender or a buyer can still reach before a missed payment. Another 112 loans ($1.24 billion) report coverage between 1.0x and 1.2x and are not counted above: close to the line. Payment status is reported on 919 of the 2,216 loans ($17.2 billion), so the late count is a floor, not a ceiling.
Where the money is lost
A few large loans carry most of the dollars. 34 loans of $25 million or more hold $1.52 billion, 60% of the flagged debt. 32 loans of $10 to $25 million hold $523 million, and 107 loans under $10 million hold $474 million. One point of recovery on the whole $2.52 billion is $25.2 million; one point on the 34 large loans alone is $15.2 million. A call list of 34 covers most of the money.
Some loans owe more than the building is worth. For 23 flagged single-building loans we have a valuation dated 2025 or later: together they owe $661 million against $728 million of value. Nine of them owe more than the building was valued at, by $108.9 million combined. That gap is the room a buyer of the note or the building negotiates in, and the loss a lender books if nothing changes. 23 is a small share of the 162 flagged single-building loans, so read it as a floor on how many are underwater, not a count.
The calendar hurts the ones that cannot refinance. 16 flagged loans ($431.7 million) mature within 24 months, 6 of them ($109.2 million) within 12 months. 8 of the 16 are interest-only, and 10 carry a rate under 5.0%, so a refinance resets the payment upward. Seven of the 16 ($114.9 million) are neither late nor in workout at the last report: that is the decision window.
| Flagged loans maturing within 24 months | Loans | Debt |
|---|---|---|
| Office | 5 | $176.0M |
| Apartments | 4 | $138.3M |
| Lodging | 3 | $74.9M |
| Retail | 4 | $42.5M |
Where it sits
| Area | Loans under pressure | Debt |
|---|---|---|
| Houston (nine counties) | 45 | $905.2M |
| Dallas-Fort Worth (Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, Denton) | 30 | $402.0M |
| Austin (Travis, Williamson, Hays) | 16 | $446.1M |
| San Antonio (Bexar, Comal) | 12 | $234.7M |
| Rest of Texas | 68 | $437.4M |
| Loans spanning two of these areas | 2 | $90.2M |
| Property type | Loans under pressure | Debt |
|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 91 | $1,418.4M |
| Office | 17 | $578.6M |
| Lodging | 16 | $234.6M |
| Healthcare | 35 | $178.2M |
| Retail | 10 | $83.8M |
| Self storage | 4 | $21.9M |
Apartments are most of the count and office is the most expensive per loan. For one metro in detail, see Houston apartment debt under pressure.
How not to lose money
If you lend. Start with the 80 loans that are under 1.0x and neither late nor in workout ($746 million), and within them the ones maturing in 24 months. Before a missed payment you can still choose: an extension for a paydown, fresh equity into the building, or a sale of the note on your terms. After a workout starts, the workout desk sets the timetable and its fees are paid out of what the loan recovers.
If you own a building behind one of these loans. Coverage under 1.0x with a maturity inside 24 months is the combination to act on. Open the lender conversation while the loan is paying, and price the sale or the recapitalization against the value of the building, not against the loan.
If you buy notes or buildings. The 9 loans that owe more than their valuation are where the discount is. Sort first by the 34 large loans, then by maturity, then by who owns the building and how long they have held it.
How this was produced
Titleman reads loan, property and ownership records across 2,100+ sources and keeps the date of each fact. For this page we took every live loan with a balance above zero whose properties are all in Texas: 2,216 loans (loans paid off through defeasance are left out). 14 flagged loans ($679 million) also hold buildings outside Texas and were left out; counting them as well, the Texas figure is up to $3.2 billion. A loan counted as under pressure if it is 30+ days late or in default, in workout, or reports coverage between 0.2x and 1.0x (lower readings looked like data errors and were left out). Coverage, payment status, valuation and maturity are the figures as reported with each loan, not our estimates; the valuation test uses only the 23 single-building loans with a valuation dated 2025 or later. Areas are groups of counties as listed above; a loan covering buildings in two areas is shown on its own row. Measured 16 October 2026 on loan data dated 23 September to 2 October 2026. Figures are rounded.
What this does not replace
It is not an appraisal, a credit opinion or a view on any one borrower. A warning sign says a loan deserves a call, not that the owner will sell, and a loan with no sign can still be a good conversation. Loans that banks keep on their own books are not in the screen, so the real Texas number is higher. A licensed professional reviews every property before anyone acts on it.
Get the list for your territory
Signals returns this list for a territory you choose: each loan with the reason it is on it, the building, and the owner behind it, in your email or CRM. Ask for the Texas list or your own metro and we will run it live, filtered to the loans and buildings you sign.
Prepared by Titleman AI, on behalf of the Titleman team.