A missed maturity is a loan that comes due in your market while nobody on your team calls the borrower. It never shows up as a loss on any report. The fee simply goes to the lender who called first.
Updated 26 October 2026. A brief for heads of origination, credit officers and debt brokers: the people who decide where the team spends its calls.
Key takeaways
- On one Titleman screen of Texas commercial loans, measured 25 October 2026, 248 loans with $3.70 billion of debt mature in the next 24 months.
- 122 of them ($1.59 billion) mature within 12 months, which is about ten loans a month in one state.
- 226 of the 248 are current: healthy borrowers who will pick a lender, not a workout desk.
- The 248 loans average about $14.9 million; at an assumed one point of origination, that is origination income of about $149,000 per refinance won or lost.
- The median rate on the list is 4.92%, and 145 loans are interest-only, so most borrowers face a bigger payment and a sizing question. The lender with the numbers first gets the meeting.
Why a missed maturity never shows up as a loss
A credit committee sees the loans it approved and the loans it declined. It does not see the loan whose borrower was never called. That loan matured, the borrower refinanced with a bank or a debt fund that reached them nine months earlier, and the fee went with it. Nothing on your side recorded a decision, so nothing recorded a cost.
That makes the maturity list a capacity problem as much as a sourcing problem. A team that can only prepare a few credible first calls a week will spend them on borrowers it already knows. Deal team capacity shows how to count that limit.
What one state's maturity wall looks like
The table below is one Titleman screen of 2,226 live Texas commercial loans ($40.6 billion), measured 25 October 2026. The full breakdown by metro and property type is on the Texas maturities page.
| Months from 25 October 2026 | Loans | Debt |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 6 | 49 | $522.2M |
| 6 to 12 | 73 | $1,070.3M |
| 12 to 18 | 52 | $830.4M |
| 18 to 24 | 74 | $1,281.5M |
| Total within 24 months | 248 | $3,704.4M |
Three facts on the same list decide how a lender should read it:
- Most were written cheap. The median rate is 4.92%, and 135 loans ($2.11 billion) carry a rate under 5.0%.
- Most pay no principal. 145 loans ($2.72 billion) are interest-only, so the full balance has to be refinanced or repaid.
- Most are healthy. 226 loans ($3.27 billion) are current. These borrowers have a choice, and the first credible number they see shapes it.
What one uncalled refinance is worth
The fee is yours to state. The arithmetic below uses a stated 1% origination fee; it is not a market figure.
| Line | Figure | How it is computed |
|---|---|---|
| Debt maturing within 24 months | $3,704.4M | Measured, Texas screen, 25 October 2026 |
| Loans | 248 | Measured |
| Average loan | about $14.9M | $3,704.4M ÷ 248 |
| Origination income on one average loan at one point | about $149,000 | $14.9M × 0.01 |
| Loans maturing within 12 months | 122 | Measured |
If your team covers one in ten of the 12-month loans and could credibly cover one in five, the difference is about 12 more first calls in a year. At one point of origination on an average loan, each refinance won carries origination income of about $149,000. Your win rate is the input that turns calls into closed loans; it is not something this screen can tell you.
Why the first lender with numbers wins the meeting
A borrower a year from maturity on a 4.92% interest-only loan is going to refinance into a higher payment. As stated arithmetic, not a forecast: on an average $14.9 million loan, interest at 4.92% is about $733,000 a year, and at an assumed 7% it is about $1,043,000, about $310,000 more. The borrower's first question is how big the new loan can be, and the second is how much equity they need to bring.
The lender who answers both on the first call, with the building's trailing income and value, gets the second call. Our refinance stress check shows the working on a sample 120-unit package, where a $14,040,000 balance covered 0.97x on trailing income at 6.5% and the T-12 supported about $10,854,000 at 1.25x: $3,186,000 below the balance. That is the conversation a borrower needs to have early.
How to build the call list
- Start from loan records with a maturity date, for your markets and property types.
- Join each loan to its property and its owner of record, so a call goes to the person who decides, not to a property manager.
- Rank by maturity, balance and coverage. The 6 to 12 month window, current loans, coverage close to the line first.
- Attach a first number to each call: trailing income, a value range and the loan that income supports.
- Date every fact, so the person making the call knows whether the coverage figure is from last quarter or last year.
Titleman does steps 1 to 5 across 2,100+ sources. Find loans maturing in a county shows the list for one county, and what a slow loan quote costs covers the next step, when the borrower sends the package.
To see the maturing loans in your own markets, book a demo.
Updated 26 October 2026. Written by the Titleman team with AI assistance. Loan counts: one Titleman screen of Texas commercial loans, measured 25 October 2026. Fee, rate and coverage scenarios are stated inputs, not market statistics.
FAQ
What is a missed maturity?
A commercial loan in your market that reaches its maturity date without your team having spoken to the borrower in the year before. The borrower refinances, sells or extends with someone else, and the fee never appears on your books, so nobody reports it as lost.
How many commercial loans mature in Texas in the next two years?
On Titleman's screen of 2,226 live Texas commercial loans ($40.6 billion), 248 loans totaling $3.70 billion mature between 25 October 2026 and 25 October 2028. 122 of them ($1.59 billion) mature within 12 months, and 74 ($1.24 billion) sit in the Houston area.
What is one refinance worth to a lender?
It depends on your fee. As arithmetic, not a market figure: the 248 Texas loans average about $14.9 million, so one point of origination on an average loan is origination income of about $149,000. Change the points and the figure moves with it.
When should a lender call a borrower before maturity?
About a year out is when most borrowers start taking refinance calls, which is why the 12-month window matters. On the Texas screen, 49 loans ($522 million) mature within 6 months and another 73 ($1.07 billion) between 6 and 12 months.
How do I build a call list of maturing loans?
Start from loan records with a maturity date, join each loan to its property and the owner of record, then rank by maturity, balance and coverage. Titleman does that join across 2,100+ sources and keeps the date of every fact, so each line on the list says how fresh it is.